With the non-event called the Golden Globes behind us, the entertainment industry now looks to how the writers strike will affect the Academy Awards.  The Golden Globes aired as a one hour press conference announcing the winners, costing NBC an estimated $10-$15 million.  The Academy Awards, however, are an industry unto themselves. 

The Oscars are the second biggest event each year after the Super Bowl, bringing in $210 million in advertising last year and reaching 40.2 million viewers.  Adage estimates another $100 million is generated in publicity and revenue for fashion designers who parade their clothes on the red carpet.  Magazines, news shows, parties, and advertising markets will loose hundreds of millions of dollars if the Academy Awards do not take place.

The writers, of course, make very little money from the Academy Awards directly - they just have to write some jokes (they don’t even have to be funny).  And mostly, the WGA needs to let the actors into the event; most actors refuse to cross picket lines. Of course, awards will be given out no matter what, but all the publicity, advertising, and fanfare will be lost because of what now degraded into petty posturing.  But causing the cancellation of the Academy Awards will likely hurt the writers more than they expect.

I’ve been critical of the writers from the start because I think their demands are shortsighted and limiting.  The reason they are arguing over DVD residuals now is because they didn’t predict TV DVD sales would skyrocket so much.  That lack of foresight is going to hurt them in a large way.  By not allowing the the Academy Awards to occur without conflict, the writers are directly costing several industries millions of dollars.  Yes the producers of award winning movies will be pissed, but so will the magazines who depend on award season advertising - an estimated $54 million.

And pissing off the magazines is something writers should avoid.

Entering three months of the strike, the writers have already started loosing the PR war.  The public initially wants to support the underdog against corporate America, but the strike is starting to cost us our favorite shows and pretty fashion.  And of course no one from either side is honestly presenting why the strike it continuing.

Further, it’s hard to be sympathetic to a group where the majority of its members are making more than $76,000 a year (according to the WGA’s own study).  50 percent of film writers make more than $76,000 and 50 percent of TV writers make more than $94,000.

So when magazines like People loose the major Oscars double issue, which generates an extra million dollars in revenue, they are going to look for someone to blame.  And when Vanity Fair has to cancel their mega-Oscars party, they’re going to be pissed.  And since the writers could have easily given the Oscars special permission to occur, the writers will be to blame.

I do believe the producers are incredibly greedy and power hungry, so neither side is in the right.  To me, they’re both bad guys and I’m certain in the end, neither side will be happy with their agreement no matter what public face they present.  But if the writers want any bargaining strength, they need allies in their fight.  Once the public and media start siding against the writers, those writers will just be lucky to get a contract.

That is, assuming, the directors don’t strike next.