Clay Shirky has an excellent article about how the newspaper industry and how technology affects business models. Shocking to many newspaper and music executives, this is not the first time technology has upended business models. Just like before, the old systems break before new systems are put in place because it takes so much experimentation to find new business models. Shirky summarizes “If the old model is broken, what will work in its place? The answer is: Nothing will work, but everything might.”
Shirky opens with a great quote putting the newspaper predicament in perspective. He quotes Gordy Thompson talking about Usenet piracy of Dave Barry columns. “When a 14 year old kid can blow up your business in his spare time, not because he hates you but because he loves you, then you got a problem.” The problem for newspapers is not a loss of interest in news, but a loss of interest in paper. Do we save newspapers or do we just redefine how get our news?
Shirky states wonderfully how newspapers seem to dwell on how we’ll replace newspapers – that without newspapers, there will be no watchdog for government or business (cause of the bang up job they’ve been doing). But with the fall of one business models leaves open experimentation for a new business model. Automobiles make horse and buggies obsolete before we have an widespread, paved roads. Or as Shirky highlights, the printing press made for chaotic business models back in the day.
The Bible was translated into local languages; was this an educational boon or the work of the devil? Erotic novels appeared, prompting the same set of questions. Copies of Aristotle and Galen circulated widely, but direct encounter with the relevant texts revealed that the two sources clashed, tarnishing faith in the Ancients. As novelty spread, old institutions seemed exhausted while new ones seemed untrustworthy; as a result, people almost literally didn’t know what to think. If you can’t trust Aristotle, who can you trust?
During the wrenching transition to print, experiments were only revealed in retrospect to be turning points. Aldus Manutius, the Venetian printer and publisher, invented the smaller octavo volume along with italic type. What seemed like a minor change — take a book and shrink it — was in retrospect a key innovation in the democratization of the printed word. As books became cheaper, more portable, and therefore more desirable, they expanded the market for all publishers, heightening the value of literacy still further.
That is what real revolutions are like. The old stuff gets broken faster than the new stuff is put in its place.
While it seems we’re giving up newspapers for the hope something new will come along, the truth is newspapers need to fail for the new thing to be worth trying. And as past transitions have shown, the new model is often more efficient and profitable and better for all parties.
