Home » Tag: hillary clinton

June 5th, 2008

Categories: News industry, Politics

Last night’s Daily Show reveal the news media’s true goal this election cycle - to make it never end. Asif Mandvi had his fingers crossed as Hillary Clinton, on the night Obama won enough delegates to claim the nomination, refused to concede defeat. If she ends her campaign, how will three 24-hour news channels fill up their time?

This entire primary season has been an effort in futility for anyone seeking information. Beyond the wasted time on out of context quotes, inflammatory relationships, and flag pins, the media punditry has desperately tried to frame this election as a horse race where if you turn away for a second, you’ll miss the crucial turning point. The result has been a ratings boon for the cable networks, with CNN seeing 90 percent increases over last year’s first quarter. MSBNC grew 68 percent. Fox News hasn’t benefited as much, with a 14 percent increase. The Democratic candidates had shut out the station from interviews until Hillary Clinton went on Bill O’Reilly’s show, giving his show a 30 percent boost in total viewers.

The 24-hour news networks relied on the image of a close race to build its ratings and are continuing the mirage heading into the general election. I don’t mean to say Hillary Clinton and John McCain had/have no chance of winning, but the odds were/are so against them. The media knows a close race is better television than a sure thing and that is causing them to be unobjective in their reporting, often overblowing non-issues in the hopes that flag pins and Reverend Wright would keep the race going.

The general election looks be a Democratic landslide even as polls show Obama and McCain are in a statistical dead heat. These polls do not account for a unified Democratic party, one this split between rabid Clinton and Obama supporters who, very likely, have no intention of voting for anti-abortion, pro-war Republican McCain even though they say so now in polls. McCain has already collected support his primary challengers just as Obama will once Clinton accepts her 2nd place finish. The result will be an unprecedented coalition of the two biggest voter and fundraising networks in history, a network McCain can’t catch up to even if he didn’t have a fundraising issue.

The other point ignored by polls is that the electoral college counts, popular vote doesn’t. I think the popular vote will end up close between Obama and McCain. The electoral college will be a Democratic landslide benefited by anti-war and anti-Republican sentiments, McCain’s lackluster appeal to hard conservatives, and Obama’s massive appeal to the youth and African-Americans. Democratic wins of special elections in Illinois (Dennis Hastert, former speaker of the house’s seat), Louisiana, and Mississippi (Trent Lott’s seat former seat), by sizeable margins spell doom for Republicans. McCain might toy with winning states like New Jersey, Michigan, and New York, but he has to hold prior swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Iowa while playing defensive in Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, and in optimistic circles, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Kansas, Montana, and Texas. Short of an Obama imposition, it’s impossible to see an electoral scenario where McCain can win.

But the news media doesn’t want to entertain electoral math. It’s more fun to pretend Obama has a white problem (how many African American’s live in Montana, Iowa, and Wisconsin?) or highlight how much independents love McCain. It keeps the race looking closer than it really is.

I don’t want CNN to call the race for Obama or ignore McCain as an also-ran. Their responsibility should be to inform us of the facts of the campaign - who did what when and why. What if questions or conjecture have no place in objective journalism. Blogs, on the other hand, can go conjecture crazy. Without some source for objective, investigative reporting on both candidates, this election is going to once again defined by talking points, 527-organization, and out-of-context crap that doesn’t matter. Change and leaders we can believe in requires a media to change and lead.

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March 12th, 2008

Categories: News industry, Politics

Another primary, another exit poll, and more pundits proclaiming the what ifs that have yet to become reality.  Mississippi voted yesterday and its sizeable black population gave Barack Obama a sizeable win.  But his modest turnout of white votes are once again giving pundits pause.

I ask why?  Time.com’s Michael Duffy writes "Only a Democrat who could win 35 to 40 percent of the white vote, while holding onto a lopsided percentage of blacks, could put the state in play in a head to head match with a Republican in the fall" saying Obama’s 30 percent of the white vote falls short.

But politics is not a zero-sum game.  White votes for Clinton do not instantly transfer to John McCain in the general election, just like Clinton’s wins in swing states Ohio do not mean only she is allowed to win it come November.  Exit polls in Ohio showed 44 percent would be satisfied with either candidate.  50 percent of them voted for Clinton.

Also, exit polls are showing just how hard it is to predict some states and voting groups.  Obama faired poorly with whites in Mississippi and Ohio but won the white vote in the larger Virginia, a once solid Republican state that will be a major swing this year.  And how many black people voted in Iowa and Wisconsin?

This election cycle has simply proved how little all the pundits (including myself) can know and predict.  But that hasn’t stopped the predicting and analysis which is captivated by the fight at hand without considering how things we didn’t predict will change everything else.  And remember votes don’t disappear after they’re cast.  We get to do this all over again in November.  I can’t wait.

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February 28th, 2008

Categories: News industry, Politics, Television

I had avoided watching political debates this cycle mostly because I hate the canned rhetoric and lack of real debate. The rules are so strictly prepared by the candidates, the debates are in my cynical opinion, a badly scripted reality show. But I caved Tuesday and watched the debate on MSNBC.

While the debated seemed one notch above reality TV (a game show maybe), I found both Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama engaging. It was the moderating journalists that looked like idiots.

NBC Nightly News host Brian Williams and Meet the Press host Tim Russert went back and forth in a subtle battle for who could ask the least relevant question.

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February 20th, 2008

Categories: Politics

From superdelegates to no delegates to switching delegates, Democrats are facing an uncertain primary season where anything can happen.  And that’s not a good thing.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue their heated campaign that is unlikely to be resolved before the convention this summer.  That time leaves many questions about the Democratic Party’s primary process and how democratic it really is.  If the candidate who wins the popular vote doesn’t win the nomination, how credible can the Democratic Party be?

Several issues plague the Democratic nominees.  Each issue leads to a situation where questionable politics would result in a questionable nominee.  After two elections where Democrats watched Republicans manipulate and possibly suppressed the vote, Democrats risk doing the same to their own primary.  The winner of this doesn’t become president - he or she gets to run for president.  If the chosen nominee doesn’t win the popular vote, Democrats will lose all credibility to criticize Republican election tactics and worse, reveal that they are so inept at leading, they can’t run their own party.

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