Not content to learn from the 10 plus years of mistakes by the recording industry, the movie industry is stampeding its way to obsolescence.

First, Fox and Warner Bros. have joined Universal in its battle with Redbox, the successful rental kiosks found outside supermarkets and fast food joints. Redbox rents movies for $1 a day, legally purchasing the movies from wholesalers. Redbox will even sell used DVDs for about $7.

Fox, Warner Bros. and Universal have sued claiming Redbox is infringing on their copyrights and are ordering wholesalers to refuse to sell their movies to Redbox before several weeks. The studios are demanding revenue sharing from the kiosks.

Redbox is countersuing for antitrust and abuse of their copyrights.

Redbox, while relying on the movie studios, is in a stronger position. Sony and Lions Gate are backing the kiosks with their movies, recognizing that movie fans love the price and convenience. DVD sales are down 13 percent while rentals are up 8 percent.

Next, the movie studios recently won two important court cases, both likely to cause more damage to the industry rather than help.  The first was the studio’s win over Real’s DVD copying software.  This copier circumvented the DVD’s DRM, which is illegal under the DMCA, but then put new DRM in its place so users couldn’t share their movies.

Now, copying for personal use or backup is considered legal and a fair use of a copyrighted work. But because of the DMCA’s anti-circumvention laws, you can’t backup the DVD you legally purchased.

What’s silly, is Real’s copier cost $20 and used DRM making it a somewhat worthless copier, especially when there are dozens of free DVD copiers without any DRM. So by suing, the movie studios 1) promoted that people could copy movies and 2) sent them to free, DRM-less alternatives.

For their other lawsuit, movie studios won their appeal against Kaleidescape, which is basically an iPod for movies (or a DVD jukebox, if you will), but costs $10,000.  Movie studios of course feared this system would be a haven for piracy, but again, it’s $10,000. It’s for high-end movie fans with lots of DVDs who don’t want to keep switching discs. They backup their discs on Kaleidescape and then watch them on their TV. But because of the DMCA’s anti-circumvention laws, users can’t do what they are otherwise legally allowed to do. And the movie industry gets to stamp out innovation and technology that is trying to help make DVDs and movies more valuable.

How are legal remedies helping here? The movie studios are trying to crush three different companies who are trying to help make DVDs more valuable at a time when consumers are showing DVDs are less worth purchasing.

The Dark Knight hit theaters two weeks ago to monumental hype, an unmatched marketing budget, and rave reviews from critics and fans. But according to Warner Bros., the Dark Knight’s record $158 million opening weekend came all thanks to the movie company’s anti-piracy efforts.

The LA Times decided to regurgitate corporate spin profiling Warner Bros. “painstaking care to thwart pirates” preventing the movie from hitting file-sharing networks.  The six month anti-piracy bonanza kept camcorder versions of the film off the web for a whole 38 hours, by Friday night.

Warner Bros. is once again missing the point.  Dark Knight did this well because it’s an amazing movie people wanted to see.  That’s why IMAX theaters were sold out into August before the movie opened.  A theater experience, especially IMAX, is a different experience than a person can get at home, whether its a social outing or better quality facilities with surround sound and bigger screens. Word-of-mouth likely helped Dark Knight break the record for second weekend gross, a week after pirated copies surfaced.

The LA Times tries to support Warner Bros. theory, but ends up proving otherwise.  It cites Ang Lee’s 2003 Hulk got leaked two weeks before the movie opened leading to terrible reviews from fans.  The movie wasn’t that good, though it still made $62 million its opening weekend, even with pirated DVDs having a two week head start.

The LA Times also points out Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith had DVD-quality screeners leaked online days before the movie opened.  But good reviews and word of mouth led the movie to gross $380 million domestically.

What the LA Times left out was how much money and man power Warner Bros. wasted on its anti-piracy efforts and how much of that could have been shifted to marketing or merchandising or just saved.  Pirates will get copies of movies and they will share them.  Movies succeed when they are quality pictures offered in compelling ways so people want to see them.  Maybe Warner Bros. should lessen its six month anti-piracy efforts and think up ways to make the movie experience even more compelling.

The last hold-out for HD exclusivity has apparently joined the Blu-Ray team, as reported by the USA Today.  Many blogs and pundits were predicting the largest seller of DVDs would announce its exclusivity at next week’s Consumer Electronics Show.  With Blu-Ray discs outselling HD-DVD more than 2 to 1, Warner Brothers’ move is likely to expedite an end to the high-def format war with Blu-Ray as the winner.

In August, Paramount went HD-DVD exclusive even though Blu-Ray had a small lead, prolonging the format war.

The announcement makes me wonder about another prediction spreading around the internet about an Ultimate Xbox 360 to be announced by Bill Gates’ keynote at CES.  The Ultimate 360 sounds like a geek wet dream with improved hardware, silent fan, built-in WiFi, IPTV service, 320 GB hard drive and a built-in HD-DVD drive.  The IPTV is probably happening (screen shots have already been leaked) but how embarrassing would the HD-DVD drive be should the format fail. As exciting as the prospect could be, the truth is the next week would be all about bashing Microsoft desperately jumping on some anti-Sony bandwagon.  It also lends credence to director Michael Bay’s theory that Microsoft wants the format war to continue so it can bolster its video download service.

Also, if Microsoft decided to include the HD-DVD drive, what happens to game makers?  Can they make games using the HD-DVD discs?  If so, that means Microsoft single-handled spreads the format war into video games where no format war (except consoles themselves) existed.  And that’s just mean. 

This is of course total speculation and quite a segue from the subject of this post, so just consider this my pre-CES posting.  Go Gears of War 2 announcement!